Rip Current Statement
Guam; Rota; Tinian; Saipan
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
What: Dangerous rip currents. Where: East facing reefs of the Marianas. When: Through Sunday afternoon. Impacts: Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Addtional Details: Easterly swell will continue to strengthen as Tropical Depression 04W starts to build swell in earnest. The swell will continue to strengthen until Sunday when it turns toward the southeast. Surf could even rise to dangerous levels along various reefs which could change as TD 04W moves.
If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don’t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.
Hydrologic Outlook
Guam; Rota; Tinian; Saipan
HEAVY RAINFALL PROBABLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
ESFGUM Tropical Storm 04W, currently located north of Chuuk, continues to organize and strengthen as it moves slowly west-northwest at 3 mph. This system is expected to become a tropical storm over the next few hours, strengthening further the next few days. As we approach the weekend, forward speed of 04W will increase, allowing the leading edge of the system to start affecting the region by Saturday afternoon. This rainfall will then increase in frequency and intensity Sunday into Monday, and may continue through Wednesday. Current forecasts range from 10 to 15 inches across Guam, decreasing into the 4 to 8 inch range for Saipan, with locally higher amounts possible. Of course, this is all dependent on the eventual track and intensity of what is expected to be a typhoon or super typhoon as it passes through the region, with current forecast tracks keeping the center a little south of Guam. However, forecast uncertainty remains and further track changes are anticipated. NOW IS THE TIME TO START PREPARING for locally heavy rainfall and the effects of such, especially if you live in or near a poor drainage area. Please continue to monitor the forecasts for changes at www.weather.gov/gum, or follow us on social media.
Special Weather Statement
Guam; Rota; Tinian; Saipan
Tropical Depression 04W continues to organize north of Chuuk. This system will continue to move very slowly northwest for another 24 to 36 hours, before increasing forward speed as it strengthens. The current forecasts have the system strengthening into a typhoon or stronger, as it passes by Guam to the south. At this time, at least Tropical Storm Force conditions are possible for Guam and Typhoon Force conditions aren’t out of the question, especially for southern portions of Guam. Current forecast tracks from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has the typhoon passing south of Guam. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will develop. Initial indications are for 10 to 15 inches of rainfall to develop for Guam early next week, decreasing into the 4 to 8 inch range further north towards Saipan. Locally higher amounts are probable. WITH THAT SAID, this system doesn’t look to affecting the Marianas until sometime in the Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon time frame, with possible deteriorating conditions thereafter. NOW IS THE TIME to start preparations! Forecast uncertainty in track and timing remains!
