WASHINGTON, D.C. — The midterm elections this Fall could be decided by more than just debates and campaign ads.
The battle for control of Congress in the 2026 midterms is changing — from campaigning to cartography.
“When they go low, we strike back. That’s the Democratic approach. And the Republicans are feeling it right now,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. “Republicans started this redistricting war and Democrats have made clear we’re going to finish it.”
In a recent interview with CNN, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries vowed to fight fire with fire. Just a few months after Texas Republicans approved a rare, mid-decade redrawing of the state’s congressional districts — at the request of President Trump — the redistricting fight is back in the spotlight.
“We are making sure those advantages are completely and totally wiped out,” said Jeffries.
Jeffries said his party could pour tens of millions of dollars into an April ballot initiative in Virginia — where Democrats believe they could flip as many as four congressional seats.
A similar ballot measure was successful last November in California, where Democrats essentially washed the probable GOP midterm gains in Texas.
The rare, mid-decade redistricting fight is likely just getting started. This week, Republicans in Utah announced they’ve collected the 200,000 signatures necessary to force a redistricting ballot measure, as other states take similar action. New York, Illinois, Louisiana, Wisconsin and Missouri, are awaiting court decisions on redistricting.
In Maryland, Democrats want to erase the state’s last Republican U.S. House seat — but some experts says state Democratic leaders aren’t exactly thrilled with D.C.’s pressure.
“Legislatures don’t like to be told what to do,” said Dr. Todd Belt, professor and director of the Political Management Master’s Program at George Washington University.
That pushback mirrors what happened in December in deep-red Indiana, where state Republican leaders bucked President Trump’s redistricting request.
“Do you think that’s a sign that our government is working as it should?” we asked Belt.
“Yes. I mean, one of the things that makes American democracy unique is that we have federalism, a balance of power between the states and the national government. And we’re seeing this exercised right here,” Belt said.
Looming over the larger redistricting fight is a pending Supreme Court decision from Louisiana. If the court sides with Republicans, it could further weaken the Voting Rights Act and potentially give the GOP a handful of additional seats.
“This means that there’s going to be probably one more seat in Alabama or Louisiana. It’s not going to make a huge difference because those districts are drawn very much to benefit one party over the other. In those two cases- the Republicans- just like Maryland, is for the Democrats,” Belt said.
Belt added that Democrats once discouraged redrawing congressional maps to boost their electoral chances. But times have changed, as has the path to power.
“Because they know that Donald Trump is going to fight with the gloves off here and he’s going to go hardcore on this. And if the Democrats don’t as well, then they’re not going to be able to fight along the same rules,” Belt said.
